05-21-2007, 04:05 PM
At this point in the game, we don't have any real evidence to go on. Saying that things are "suspisious" is pretty pointless unless you think the person has a post requirement or something. That is why I don't support the idea of voting for someone on day one. Mostl likely, at least 2/3rds of the people in this game are innocent. If there are 2 baddy teams with nightkill abillities, which looking back through several of the old IDB WW games, seems to be the typical setup, it would be very difficult for the innocents to win, as AT MOST, they only control 2/3rds of the kills until they kill off the first Baddy team.
Because of that ratio, a random execution (which is all a day 1 execution really amounts too, as just about any behavior could be constructed as "suspicious" in some way or another) will probably have AT LEAST a 2/3rds chance of hitting an innocent. Even worse, there's a chance that innocent could be an important one, who's death would be an even bigger blow to the innocents than the death of a baddy would be to the baddy team. (Dreamers (which there are usually 2 of, 1 for each baddy team), rezzers, and protectors come to mind as fitting this catagory). So really, day 1 excutions have a better chance of hurting the innocents than the baddy.
As far as behavioral analysis goes...
In my opinion, unless there is something which STRONGY supports the idea that someone has a post requirement, it's pretty useless.
Why? EVERYONE, regaurdless of what thier role actually is, is trying to convince you that they aren't a baddy. Anyone can be swayed by anyone's arguments, even if those arguments may prove to be wrong, if the arguer supports thier argument better than anyone else. Similarilly, anyone can make a mistake. Both baddies and innocents can argue for or against the innocence of anyone, baddy or innocent. A smart baddy can act in a way which doesn't make them seem "suspicious," and an innocent can be made to seem "suspicious" by a baddy. We need something more solid to execute someone on, and we're not getting it on day 1.
Because of that ratio, a random execution (which is all a day 1 execution really amounts too, as just about any behavior could be constructed as "suspicious" in some way or another) will probably have AT LEAST a 2/3rds chance of hitting an innocent. Even worse, there's a chance that innocent could be an important one, who's death would be an even bigger blow to the innocents than the death of a baddy would be to the baddy team. (Dreamers (which there are usually 2 of, 1 for each baddy team), rezzers, and protectors come to mind as fitting this catagory). So really, day 1 excutions have a better chance of hurting the innocents than the baddy.
As far as behavioral analysis goes...
In my opinion, unless there is something which STRONGY supports the idea that someone has a post requirement, it's pretty useless.
Why? EVERYONE, regaurdless of what thier role actually is, is trying to convince you that they aren't a baddy. Anyone can be swayed by anyone's arguments, even if those arguments may prove to be wrong, if the arguer supports thier argument better than anyone else. Similarilly, anyone can make a mistake. Both baddies and innocents can argue for or against the innocence of anyone, baddy or innocent. A smart baddy can act in a way which doesn't make them seem "suspicious," and an innocent can be made to seem "suspicious" by a baddy. We need something more solid to execute someone on, and we're not getting it on day 1.


Even that doesn't hint to anything truthfully. Werewolf Ever After