That's like saying everyone gets old. By and large, deflation is much more common and frequent than inflation is. Inflation is almost purely conditional, and almost always based on retirement or some other form of limitation on the number of that item in the economy.
I didn't pay attention to item prices during the tournaments, so I won't disagree beyond the fact that RotL will continue to inflate up to if not past Ghostkershield. In my opinion it's one of the best weapons on Neo right now.
This would be a perfect opportunity to use Ipricing. I wish it would have started 5 years ago so we had the data for that time period till now.
We could randomly pick 100 items or so and I would bet my set that 90% of them have risen in value.
I am positive I have never heard my grandparents say "Dang this deflation, stupid government"
betaboy2 Wrote:We could randomly pick 100 items or so and I would bet my set that 90% of them have risen in value.
I'd take up that bet. And I'd add on a secondary bet that any items that have inflated have had a direct reason for it (Avatar-requirement, retirement, or another strong reason to create a very high demand), whereas any items that are still stocking in the Shops that don't have an extra use (or a some direct reason for high demand) have deflated.
Edit: On a slightly off-topic note, US inflation has risen about 10x in the past several decades (since the 1940's or so).
EVERYTHING (98%) inflates over time. Just depends on the amount of time you are talking about.
betaboy2 Wrote:This would be a perfect opportunity to use Ipricing. I wish it would have started 5 years ago so we had the data for that time period till now.
We could randomly pick 100 items or so and I would bet my set that 90% of them have risen in value.
I am positive I have never heard my grandparents say "Dang this deflation, stupid government"
That's real life. This is neopets. Most things come into the neopian economy at a SET price, at a fairly constant rate. Everyone is competing with everyone else to try to sell things fast, and with the shop wizard, they have to outprice everyone else in neopia, or at least in thier wiz grouping. This is not the case in real life. Also, in real life, if a new item or invention that people actually think is useflu comes out, production is is much higher when it first comes out, to meat the demand, than it is 10 years later. Basically, were possible, in real life, production meets demand (unless your talking about new console games when they first come out, which are kept intentionally inflated for a while), wheras on neopets, preduction is constant, regaurdless of demand. The "items retire" argument doesn't work, most items aren't retired. Also, because moeny paid when you buy something in a neopian shop goes *poof*, I suspect the amount of NP/ person in the neopian economy goes up much slower than the number of dollars in the US economy, for example. While I would not take the you bet on 100 random items, I WOULD take the bet on all items in neopia, if there was a way to judge that. (Note: I'm obviously not talking so far back that you're before the rise of restocking.)
betaboy2 Wrote:EVERYTHING (98%) inflates over time. Just depends on the amount of time you are talking about.
And if you take
everything and compare its prices now to a year from now, I'd place my money that 98% either stay the same (varying no more than a thousand NPs one way or the other, and even though you could argue that the thousand increase would be inflation, I would still bet that enough items deflated that much to balance everything out) or deflate.
Very few items retire, and very few items enter the economy in a limited supply. Likewise, very few gain real demand. The Shops pump items into the economy at a faster rate than demand for them comes. Add Tarla to that, and you've got an economy that is generally deflating the prices on items.
I agree with pretty much everything Shattered said, but here's something to consider: TNT has STRONGLY hinted that there is a major site-wide event on the way. Whether it is a war or not, war speculation will drive prices on everything up. If you're planning on selling and you have no need for the neopoints immediately, you might want to wait until then.
In the very long run, however, I cannot see the prices on Neoquest II-Evil weapons increasing. The Insane weapons are much more limited, so the 13-iconers are very good investments.
OK I won't sell as I will need it if a war is coming lol, thanks guys you're all so smart and kind, cya round.
Quote:Everyone is competing with everyone else to try to sell things fast, and with the shop wizard, they have to outprice everyone else in neopia, or at least in thier wiz grouping. This is not the case in real life.
And thats not like real life how? How many commercials do you see a day where they are selling something and they emphasize how much more expensive their product is than the competitors?
I think we will just have to agree to disagree. (I enjoyed the discussion though)
But since you guys think the majority of your items will be worth less in the future; go ahead and sell them all to me now and just buy them back in a year or so.
betaboy2 Wrote:Quote:Everyone is competing with everyone else to try to sell things fast, and with the shop wizard, they have to outprice everyone else in neopia, or at least in thier wiz grouping. This is not the case in real life.
And thats not like real life how? How many commercials do you see a day where they are selling something and they emphasize how much more expensive their product is than the competitors?
I think we will just have to agree to disagree. (I enjoyed the discussion though)
But since you guys think the majority of your items will be worth less in the future; go ahead and sell them all to me now and just buy them back in a year or so.
Oh? But in real life, does my local shop where I live in the US have to compete with some shop in China? Or even on the other side of the Country? Or even on the other side of the STATE for that matter, if we're talking something routine, like food? So You're competing with alot fewer people in real life than on neopets. Also, let's face it, the price for starting a small shop in real life is equivelent to that of starting a mall in neopia, so alot fewer people have shops. Finally, in response to the advertisement stuff: All I have to say is: The winner of the ad war is not necisarlly the person with the cheapest price.
As for why I don't sell off all my items and buy them back later when they've deflated... first, I don't make gambles like that. while MOST items deflate, some DO inflate, and I don't like to take that sort of risk
Second, a large chunk of my met worth is tied up in retired items which I'm keeping around ONLY because I think they will inflate. I could sell my Sloth Approved Hair Gel for a freezing potion and get some extra green out of the deal, but why sell it now, instead of later to some desperate ritch person with a sloth gallery when it's the only one on the TP? The same goes for stockpile of r101 stamps. And for my defeating the master. There are some items which DO inflate, and the prudent investor can tell witch. (although I got most of those items directly from the source). However, most items, the ones which still have a renewable supply entering neopia, tend towards deflation.