This weeks editorial brings up an interesting prospect. What is the probability of getting those Super Bonuses in the training schools? I've searched a bit and I haven't seen anything on it yet. Maybe it might be an idea for a good IDP article.
heres my thought, and its just a guess
2x: 1/10
3x: 1/100
4x 1/1000
5x 1/10000
6x 1/100000
of course, youre very unlikely to ever see the last two, and for most advanced pets, who rely mostly on other sources for the majority of their points, even the 4x is improbable, but im pretty confident those are about the #'s/
there is an article in neopets magazine about it, I don't have the mag with me now
I once got 4x twice in a day. In fact, altogether, I've probably gotten more 4x than 2x.
I'm pretty sure the probabilities are higher than that, 1/1000 for 4x sounds off.
I think x2 is less likely than 1/10, but x4 is more likely than 1/1000, since I also got it once or twice. And I've had a couple of threes...
Maybe more like
x2 = 1/30
x3 = 1/100
x4 = 1/200
x5 = 1/500
x6 = 1/1000
Nice i just have had two two x3 bonus.. i thought that was the max bonus...
1 in ten for the 2x sounds about right. Have been keeping a log for the past couple of weeks and show 5.... 2x bonus's in the past 44 courses.
I've only got two bonuses in something like my last 60 courses, and they were only x2, so the 1/30 odds dont seem too far off to me. Although I've never had more than a x2, so either I'm unlucky (highly likely) or the odds are even higher.
Update for 60 courses
6 x2
1 x3
agreed 2x at 1/30
got my in 90 course
2x - 5
3x - 1
Keep in mind that with probability, if you get exactly the predicted percent with only a few trials, something's wrong. Even with 100 trials, with odds like 1 in 10 or 1 in 30, you won't be getting very nice results. That, and since each scenario is independent, getting 20 courses in a row with no bonuses in no way increases your chances of getting a bonus your 21st course.